In 1865, economist William Stanley Jevons observed a curious phenomenon in his book The Coal Question: despite the advent of a more efficient steam engine, British coal consumption soared rather than declined. This counterintuitive trend, known as Jevons Paradox, suggests that advancements in efficiency don’t always lead to reductions in resource use.
Fast forward to today, and Jevons Paradox might be making a comeback in the realm of autonomous driving. According to The Verge, the promise of self-driving cars is a utopia of reduced energy consumption, fewer emissions, and smoother traffic flows. Mobileye’s 2021 blog even touted that autonomous vehicles would cut down on energy-draining stop-and-go driving and minimize human errors in energy-efficient driving.
However, the reality could be more complex. While autonomous vehicles might drive more efficiently, they also come with a significant technological overhead. These self-driving marvels rely on a slew of sensors, massive computing power, and data processing that demands a hefty amount of energy. If this energy isn’t sourced from renewables, the environmental benefits could be offset by the carbon footprint of the supporting technology.
Adding to the complexity is the behavioral shift expected with autonomous driving. Historian Peter Norton, who has studied the Jevons Paradox extensively, warned as early as 2014 that self-driving cars might encourage people to use them more frequently. Freed from the drudgery of driving, individuals might opt to stay in their cars longer for work, leisure, or relaxation, potentially increasing travel distances and frequency.
A recent US study echoes this concern, predicting that as autonomous vehicles become more widespread, people might undertake more trips and travel greater distances. This could lead to longer commutes as individuals take advantage of the more comfortable and productive travel experience. Consequently, the gains from more efficient vehicle operation might be overshadowed by increased overall use.
To mitigate this, some researchers suggest restricting private access to autonomous vehicles, focusing their use on public transport or ride-sharing services. However, implementing such measures could face significant political and societal hurdles.
As we navigate the future of autonomous driving, it’s clear that while these vehicles may offer substantial benefits, they also bring challenges that align with Jevons Paradox. The promise of efficiency might come with unintended consequences, making it crucial to consider both the benefits and the broader impacts on travel behavior and energy consumption.